Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Here it comes!

I haven't written much about politics and the presidential campaign, but I must admit, historically I have been a political junky. I have just been in hibernation for a few years. I remember the time that I read three newspapers everyday, subscribed to National Review, the American Spectator, as well as a bunch other magazines, and of course a few Catholic periodicals. Not a week would go by without at least one letter to the editor.

For years I am ashamed to say, the National Review spoke my religion more than the Pope did-although I thought they were at least 85% compatible. I remember when John Paul II first came out with one of his social encyclicals (can't recall which one) and the National Review dismissed it (because it criticized Capitalism) saying that Catholics weren't obligated to pay attention to it because it was outside the Pope's competence (i.e. it didn't concern faith or morals.) So I dismissed it and didn't read it for years. Only my love for John Paul finally convinced me to read it. And after having read it, I tossed National Review and all the other political mags. I found my complete home in the bosom of Holy Mother Church without compromise.

I have been in hibernation-but the victory of Mitt Romney last night in Michigan brings on the prospect of an open convention. And this could be too much for me.

I too took the Fox candidate match poll that Mr. Culbreath took. I too placed Duncan Hunter first. I hadn't even hear of him before this, and after reading all his positions on all the issues, I am left to believe that if he is the best match, then no one is a really good match at all.

This post could sedge way nicely into my own campaign for '012. It was the entire conversation at breakfast this morning. I broke the news that I already had heard from a committed supporter. Yet I cautioned that I wasn't sure if it was truly a vote for me or an anti-Romney vote (although who knows if he'll be running in '012?)

But I digress. The open convention scenario would happen if (and I am not counting delegates, just simply hand-waving) McCain wins SC, Giuliani wins Florida, and then on Super Tuesday: Giuliani wins a NY and something else (maybe CA?); McCain wins a couple Western/Southern states/Midwest states; Romney wins a Southern state and say Illinois and something else; maybe Huckabee wins Arkansas-effectively allowing 4 to remain in the race viably-although unless Huckabee wins SC (which is possible) he is effectively through. McCain may be effectively through if he doesn't win SC.

I believe if Huckabee wins SC it will quickly become a two man race between Romney and Giuliani. I don't think Huckabee has the money or the following to go national. (Note that I think Fred Thompson is through unless he wins SC and I think that is virtually impossible.)

So all this excitement, but in the end there won't be an open convention. Unbeknowst to us, one of these gentlemen has really effectively wrapped it up already unless there is a major gaffe. But it will be exciting (but not gratifying since I don't have a candidate to root for) to watch.

Oremus pro invicem!

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